Dollar immer noch reagiert Optimismus mit der Fed

Sao Paulo - If you rely on the outside, the dollar will resume the upward trend today against the real, interrupted yesterday afternoon by a movement of arbitrage between exchange and interest rates. The U.S. currency maintains valuation widespread after the decision of the Federal Reserve to keep the benchmark interest rate by 0.25% and its positive reviews for the U.S. economy, especially in the labor market. This solidified the perception that the recovery of the greatest power on earth is in progress, benefiting all markets. The U.S. dollar opened higher at 0.22%, to R $ 1.804.
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The positive behavior of the dollar should continue this morning, at least until the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, make his speech at the annual convention of the Association of Community Banks of America in Nashville (Tennessee), scheduled for 11 hours. This is because if he did not confirm the perceptions, there will be reaction.

For now, the effect of optimism about the U.S. economic recovery in the dollar was not even upset at the news that the eurozone countries signed a second bailout program for Greece. In a statement, the president of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that "all national and parliamentary procedures required were completed." He also stated that 17 countries have authorized the rescue fund temporary block, the European Financial Stability Line (EFSF, its acronym in English), to release the first part of aid to the country. This first payment will be "the total amount of 39.4 billion euros, which will be disbursed in several installments," the statement said. The announcement formalizes a policy decision to grant Greece more than 130 billion euros taken by the finance ministers of the euro area on Monday.

Here, although the market expect a high dollar in the opening, which is already signaled in the derivatives business, the firmness of U.S. currency can be shaken by domestic issues. After a great effort and successful in order to print an upward trend for the dollar - which lasted for seven consecutive trading sessions - the finance minister, Guido Mantega, slipped.

At the official exchange policy orally administered in its passage through the Economic Affairs Commission (EAC) of the Senate, yesterday, he reinforced the idea that there is a market for informal exchange rate band with a floor and ceiling R $ 1.70 from $ 1.90. And that makes room for arbitrage. "To be sure this band, investors feel comfortable to operate and speculate further, since the risk is easily calculated and it may even bring more money into the country," says one expert, assessing the current level of quotation, the around £ 1.80, tends to be the new equilibrium in the market.

Still, he adds, that the promises of new government interventions continue weighing on business. The operator evaluates also the outside tends to become more important in business over the next trading sessions.